søndag den 28. oktober 2012

West Coast bullpen strategy

Any World Series the Yankees are not a part of I am always very quick to pronounce the Who Gives a Rat's Ass World Series. It's not very nice, and it clearly reflects my Yankee-centric - or at least AL-East'o'centric - baseball view. What gnaws at me every time the Yankees fail to make the World Series is that they are consistently in the top two, maybe three, in baseball at winning in the regular season. So every time the Detroit Tigers, winning 85-88 times in a 162-game calendar, makes it further than the Yankees, I take it as an illustration of the unfairness of the postseason format. Which it often is.
Now, I can only imagine what San Francisco fans must have felt like during the 90s. Or every year from 2003 through 2009. But I digress.

Last year the weakest participant in the Who Gives a Rat's Ass World Series wound up winning it. Because it was a team of winners, and their opponent, the Texas Rangers, turned out to be a team of losers.
This year, though, the team that won the most games during the regular season now has a 3-0 lead against the weaker team. In other words, a full house is beating three kings. And the San Francisco Giants are selling that full house as a straight flush now with their strong defense, hustle and general basic luck. But there is one other strong factor in the Giants' postseason run, and that factor is Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum was at the core of the Giants' championship of 2010 as a starter, and that is the role he has made his money in. There is historically way more prestige in starting compared to relieving, and for the few pitchers who have not been successful as starters and who have gone on to have great careers relieving, they have practically all been closers (Mariano Rivera on one level, Jonathan Papelbon on another). What is unique about the way Giants manager Bruce Bochy is using Lincecum this year is that he doesn't look at save opportunities at all - all he cares about is nailing down the game, or shutting down the opponents so as to give the Giants a chance to win.

Tim Lincecum is one of the best starting pitchers in the National League these past five years, and the Giants could not have won without him throwing big quality starts in 2010. But he has had a terrible year, so it seemed like the Giants would perish in the postseason, Lincecum seemingly buried in irrelevance (like A-Rod with the Yankees, I might add). But Bochy has found the perfect use for him in the middle of the games. Last night he threw 2 1/3 innings of shutout ball to get a two-run lead to the closer, who remains Sergio Romo (in Brian Wilson's absence; notice the Giants' bona fide closer is not even a factor in this postseason run!). I bet the Tigers felt like that game was shortened pretty effectively. I bet the Tigers were hoping they wouldn't see Lincecum until the ninth inning.

Similar recipes have been tried before. This was the way managers used relief aces back in the golden era of baseball. Back then there was no save statistic, closers didn't exist. The ace bullpen guy was the Fireman, and his job was to put out fires whenever there was smoke. Often, as it's the case now, this is not in the ninth inning.
It is clearly a factor in making Lincecum an effective reliever that he can go multiple innings without any problems, and that has been an important part of any relief legend's resume. Back in the days of Sutter and Gossage, the closer often worked more than two innings, like the old school firemen. And I will contend that Mariano Rivera, legendary cutter or not, would not have been nearly the factor he was in the Yankees' dominance if he hadn't been the closer who was able to get six outs to nail down a victory. Other relievers have tried that, and not been nearly as successful.

It is a joy to watch Lincecum work the middle relief, and it so clearly takes a lot of strain off the Giants' already pretty good rotation. That's why I'm wondering if it would not be worth the risk to try out this strategy for other teams as well. Have a very good pitcher, capable of starting, moved to middle relief, effectively shortening games and helping the rotation out. It has often been said that a good number three starter is worth more than a great closer - but how would an effective lock-down middle reliever stack up against the number three or four starter he would otherwise be?

See, I'm not saying the Yankees should yank Sabathia from the rotation and put him in the bullpen. The 200+ innings to the tune of a 3.00 ERA he can put up every year is simply worth more. But would it be worth it, for instance, for the Yankees to take a look at Ivan Nova out of the bullpen? Back in 1996, Joe Torre spoke of 'The Formula' as the scenario when the starter could go six innings, the lock-down middle reliever (Mariano Rivera) could go the seventh and eighth, setting up the closer (John Wetteland). Rivera would have been a number-four starter as well had he continued starting, so this setup could become a closer academy, too! Only instead of grooming short-relief pitchers like David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain into taking over the closing, the Yankees could actually find themselves developing a true fireman who could come in to nail down the final six or seven outs of a ball game. Now, that would be a revolution of the closer role - going back to basics, really.

Back in the 80s, the San Francisco 49ers revolutionized football with their West Coast Offense. This year, it appears baseball could learn a thing or two from Bruce Bochy and his West Coast bullpen strategy.

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