mandag den 20. februar 2012

After the Team Tour

The FIS Team Tour is over after a somewhat amputated overall competition this year. It wasn't anyone's fault but the weather's, though, and some exciting things happened along the way. The Team Tour is the second-half answer to the Four Hills tournament, and in my opinion it offers an interesting dimension to the ski jumping season, given that it is a team competition. 

I realize now that I should have blogged about my weekend at Willingen, and that is probably something I will do next week, when, for all intents and purposes, the ski jumping season reaches its climax in the form of the ski flying championships at Vikersund. I'll post some photos too, I promise, although some impressions of my trip can be seen on my twitter.

Willingen was the start of the Team Tour, though, and what a triumph for the Norwegian squad it turned out to be. They won the team competition, and Norwegian Anders Bardal won the traditional competition at the Mühlenkopf hill - and at the same time, the Austrian team turned out to have their worst weekend of the season, being collectively unable to match the strong Norwegians.
To summarize this competition, I'll test a new format for blogging about an event, highlighting the most important things that happened. It goes like this:
What it meant: As I mentioned, it meant that Norway led off the Team Tour as the team to beat. They looked like a homogenous team in the team competition, with every one of the four jumpers practically better than his Austrian and German counterpart. And with a decidedly bad weekend for Austrians Schlierenzauer and, especially, Kofler, Anders Bardal took over the overall lead in the individual World Cup.
Surprises: On the positive side, Daiki Ito (3rd in the individual competition) continued to step up his game, and so did the brilliant Roman Koudelka, who finished second. And two youngsters set the Willingen weekend on fire, namely the explosive Peter Prevc, who out-jumped everyone Sunday afternoon (149.5 m), and the Norwegian newcomer Anders Fannemel, who came to Willingen fresh from his COC victory in Brotterode.
On the less positive side, I did not expect the Austrians to fall this flat in any competition this season. Kofler looks deflated, like he was on good form back in November and early December, but now he's a just about average jumper. Morgenstern's class keeps him in the top ten consistently, but he simply does not have the form this year. And Gregor Schlierenzauer is one of the greatest ski jumpers of all time, but this weekend at the Mühlenkopf hill, Schliri just didn't have it. He finished in the lower half of the world cup points, which is not where an all-time great should be. 
Perspectives: Was this the weekend where the Norwegians took over superiority in ski jumping from the dominating Austrians? Were the Austrians, whose strongest jumper in the individual competition was the beleaguered Martin Koch, just having an off week, or were the Norwegians, led by Bardal, taking over?
It was probably the former, since the decisive difference at least in the team competition seemed to be that the first jumper (i.e. the nominally weakest) was considerably better for the Norwegian team. That was the surprisingly strong Fannemel. Had Fannemel jumped at about the same level as Martin Koch, Austria's first jumper, the team competition would have been closer. Bardal won the individual competition with a fine first jump and a strong 148 meters in the final round. But he was indeed aided by a sluggish (or unfortunate?) Schlierenzauer.

Klingenthal got cancelled. It was too bad for a Team Tour that had developed an intriguing matchup between Norway and Austria, with the German team a distant third, battling Japan and the Czechs and Slovenians for best-of-the-rest honors.
What it meant: It meant that the Team Tour was suddenly a two-hill tournament. And it meant that Richard Freitag, who has been the best German jumper this season - apologies to Severin Freund; he hasn't won any competitions - missed a chance to win one for his home crowd in Saxony. Oh yeah, and it showed once again that a machine that can control the weather should be invented as soon as possible.
Surprises: Only one, and it was a great one: Tom Hilde, who had fractured one of his vertebrae in Oberstdorf back in December, came back and won the qualifying round! How about that for a clear announcement of Norwegian confidence?
Perspectives: The King of Klingenthal in recent years, Kamil Stoch, might regret not getting to jump in Klingenthal, as he has won the last two Summer Grand Prix competitions and a World Cup competition there! No other jumper has won at the highest level in Klingenthal since Simon Ammann two years ago.
Who might this ski jumping cancellation benefit? Probably the Austrians, who should be better ski-flyers than the Norwegians, and who would consequently prefer a decision at Oberstdorf instead of Klingenthal.

Oberstdorf: Today's team competition closed this year's Team Tour. Austria did take the overall victory after edging out a rather lame Norwegian squad in the ski flying events.
What it means: Who knows? Looking ahead to the ski-flying World Championships, Schlierenzauer does not look on form. Neither does Morgenstern, to say the least. Kofler had a bit of a comeback today, but the Austrians might have finished third overall in the Team Tour if not for Martin Koch's ski flying abilities. Oh, and Daiki Ito took over the lead in the ski flying World Cup.
Surprises: Martin Koch, bad back and all, can still fly with the best of them! Slovenia overcame the first two jumping rounds and won the team competition. Peter Prevc tied the hill record (225.5 meters), but fell and broke one of his skis - and his collarbone. Germany disappointed badly and slipped down on the Team Tour overall classification, particularly because of a really bad jump from Michael Neumayer. Because Norway was behind in the Team Tour, I was also surprised that their coach, Alexander Stöckl, selected Rune Velta to jump second instead of a jumper with some more upside (e.g. Bjørn Einar Romøren or Johan Remen Evensen, who are also expert skiflyers).
Perspectives: Austria won the Team Tour without dominating. Apart from Koch's win yesterday, they did not show too great form going into the Vikersund week. Neither did the Norwegians, but don't sleep on one of the flyers (Romøren or Evensen) pulling a surprise at Vikersund. And Fannemel brings it, he's the real deal.
I'm actually sorry that we won't get to see Peter Prevc gunning for the world ski flying record next week, because he seems to be the flying specialist on his best form at the moment. Kranjec was good today too, but there is an explosiveness to Prevc that could have made him a star at Vikersund. Let's hope his crash today does not affect his further career too much.

So who wins the ski flying World Championship next week at Vikersund? There are two competitions, individual and team, and here are my favorites for them. The more stars, the more I believe in them:

Individual
Robert Kranjec, Daiki Ito, Martin Koch (***)
Gregor Schlierenzauer, Tom Hilde, Roman Koudelka (**)
Anders Fannemel, Richard Freitag, Kamil Stoch (*)

Team
Austria, Norway (***) [What, you expected Bulgaria?]
Japan, Germany (**)
Czech Republic, Slovenia [if they get Peter Prevc back, which they probably won't] (*)

I'm looking forward to the Vikersund week. Until then, peace out!